Commercial Bank: 4QCY24 Universe earnings to fall 29%QoQ - By Taurus Research

<p></p><ul><li><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:medium;">We expect 4QCY24 TSL Banking Universe earnings to fall 29% QoQ primarily due to: i) margin compression amid falling yields specially on investments due to drop in interest rates; and ii) surge in taxation owing to revision in the corporate tax rate for the year. Nevertheless, strong performance during 1HCY24 will support full-year results for the sector, resulting in CY24 PAT for the TSL Banking Universe posting a growth of 9%YoY.</span></li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:medium;">For context, the SBP cut its benchmark policy rate 900bps during the year (450bps during 4QCY24), taking the same to 13% by Dec&rsquo;24 close. Resultantly, average industry spread for the year clocked-in at 6.33% (down 8...